{"id":2125,"date":"2026-01-09T09:23:50","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T12:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/?p=2125"},"modified":"2026-01-09T09:44:22","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T12:44:22","slug":"seusite-com-p-78-buzios-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/seusite-com-p-78-buzios-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"P-78 in 2026: what changes in Brazilian offshore and in the supply chain"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2125\" class=\"elementor elementor-2125\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5429246e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"5429246e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cc6bac4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-media-carousel\" data-id=\"cc6bac4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"media-carousel.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68aa317 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"68aa317\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1>\u00a0<\/h1><p>The current Brazilian oil and gas cycle has entered a more \u201cdown-to-earth\u201d and, at the same time, very demanding phase: after important milestones in 2025, 2026 is likely to be the first full year in which the production ramp-up and its effects on the supply chain show up more strongly. This changes the game for those who operate, buy, manufacture, deliver and maintain equipment for offshore.<\/p><p>Two projects help explain this moment: the start of production of the FPSO P-78 in the B\u00fazios field, and the start of operation of the Bacalhau field. Combined with the IBP projections for 2025-2029, they paint a clear picture: more volume, more complexity and less tolerance for failures in lead times, documentation and integrity.<\/p><h2>1) 2026 is not \u201cthe beginning\u201d, it is the year the pressure shows up<\/h2><p>It is common to see forecasts calling 2026 a \u201cturning point\u201d, but the correct reading is different: many milestones took place in 2025 and, now, 2026 begins to show the operational and logistical impact of sustaining high production with continuous campaigns of maintenance, tie-ins, commissioning, replacement and efficiency improvement.<\/p><p>This matters because the supply chain does not feel only the arrival of a platform. It feels the pace: consumption routines, critical spare parts, recurring failures, long lead time items, inspections, documentation and unforgiving deadlines.<\/p><h2>2) P-78 and B\u00fazios: scale, efficiency and gas gaining relevance<\/h2><p>Petrobras started production of the FPSO P-78 (B\u00fazios 6) on 31\/12\/2025. The unit has a capacity of\u00a0<strong>180 thousand barrels\/day<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>7.2 million m\u00b3\/day of gas<\/strong>, helping to raise the field's installed capacity.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br\/economia\/noticia\/2026-01\/petrobras-inicia-operacao-na-plataforma-p-78-no-campo-de-buzios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><p>B\u00fazios, in turn, reached on 29\/10\/2025 a record daily average of\u00a0<strong>1 million barrels\/day<\/strong>, reinforcing the weight of the pre-salt in national production.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agencia.petrobras.com.br\/w\/campo-de-b%C3%BAzios-atinge-produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o-recorde-de-1-milh%C3%A3o-de-barris-de-petr%C3%B3leo-por-dia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><p>For the supply chain, the message is straightforward: scale increases consumption and increases criticality. In practical terms, more wells and more capacity mean:<\/p><ul><li>more demand for high-turnover components (seals, gaskets, instrumentation, fittings, valves and safety items),<\/li><li>more scheduled shutdowns and short execution windows,<\/li><li>more requirements for traceability and technical evidence where applicable,<\/li><li>more risk of impact when lead time slips.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong>Relevant additional point:<\/strong>\u00a0the ANP authorized the start of operations of the FPSO P-78 after review and approval of documentation and operational safety conditions. This is a good reminder of how the regulatory bar influences schedules and deliveries.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/anp\/pt-br\/canais_atendimento\/imprensa\/noticias-comunicados\/anp-autoriza-inicio-das-operacoes-do-fpso-p-78-no-campo-de-buzios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><h2>3) Bacalhau: a new technological level and carbon efficiency<\/h2><p>The Bacalhau field started operation in October 2025. Equinor reports a capacity of\u00a0<strong>220 thousand barrels\/day<\/strong>\u00a0and estimated emissions of about\u00a0<strong>9 kg of CO\u2082 per boe<\/strong>, supported by combined cycle gas turbines and a focus on efficiency.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.equinor.com.br\/noticias\/bacalhau-maior-campo-internacional-da-equinor-inicia-operacao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><p>In addition, the Ministry of Mines and Energy highlights Bacalhau as the first project under the production sharing regime in Brazil with an FPSO operated by a foreign operator, reinforcing integration with global supply chains.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/mme\/pt-br\/assuntos\/noticias\/com-potencial-para-produzir-um-bilhao-de-barris-campo-de-bacalhau-inicia-producao-no-pre-sal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><p>In practice, Bacalhau strengthens a trend that is already clear: efficiency and technical standards are no longer \u201cdifferentiators\u201d, they have become prerequisites. For suppliers, this shows up as demands for:<\/p><ul><li>performance and reliability backed by evidence (reports, tests, certifications and inspections when required),<\/li><li>consistent quality control across batches,<\/li><li>documentation ready for audits and for fast release at bases and warehouses,<\/li><li>the ability to respond quickly to failure events, including with approvable alternatives.<\/li><\/ul><h2>4) 2025-2029 projections (IBP): more production, more available gas and rising capex<\/h2><p>A good summary of the \u201csize of the cycle\u201d is in the\u00a0<strong>IBP Outlook 2025-2029<\/strong>. In the base scenario, the study indicates continuous growth with:<\/p><ul><li><strong>peak oil production in 2028<\/strong>, reaching\u00a0<strong>4.2 million barrels\/day<\/strong>,<\/li><li><strong>available natural gas production<\/strong>\u00a0reaching\u00a0<strong>68 million m\u00b3\/day in 2029<\/strong>, about\u00a0<strong>34% above 2024<\/strong>,<\/li><li><strong>investments in O&amp;G production<\/strong>\u00a0growing between 2025 and 2026, reaching about\u00a0<strong>US$ 21.3 billion<\/strong>,<\/li><li><strong>government revenue<\/strong>\u00a0projected at around\u00a0<strong>US$ 42 billion in 2029<\/strong>\u00a0(depending on scenario and assumptions),<\/li><li><strong>peak of sector-related jobs in 2026<\/strong>, with a projection of\u00a0<strong>483 thousand<\/strong>.<\/li><\/ul><p><a href=\"https:\/\/portal.ibp.org.br\/personalizado\/uploads\/2025\/10\/pt-outlookibp.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source (PDF): Outlook IBP 2025-2029<\/a><\/p><div><p><strong>The right way to read the Outlook:<\/strong>\u00a0a projection is not a promise. It serves to guide capacity, planning and risk. Those who treat it as a \u201ccertainty\u201d tend to get inventory, lead times and budgets wrong.<\/p><\/div><h2>5) P-78 vs Bacalhau: quick comparison<\/h2><table><thead><tr><th>Item<\/th><th>P-78 (B\u00fazios 6)<\/th><th>FPSO Bacalhau<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Production milestone<\/td><td>31\/12\/2025<\/td><td>October 2025<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oil capacity<\/td><td>180 thousand bbl\/d<\/td><td>220 thousand bbl\/d<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gas \/ efficiency<\/td><td>7.2 million m\u00b3\/d of gas<\/td><td>combined cycle gas turbines<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions (public reference)<\/td><td>focus on operational efficiency (no single figure here)<\/td><td>~9 kg CO\u2082\/boe (estimate)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p>Sources:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br\/economia\/noticia\/2026-01\/petrobras-inicia-operacao-na-plataforma-p-78-no-campo-de-buzios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">P-78<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.equinor.com.br\/noticias\/bacalhau-maior-campo-internacional-da-equinor-inicia-operacao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Bacalhau<\/a><\/p><h2>6) What this requires from the supply chain in 2026<\/h2><p>When the pace accelerates, it is not the \u201ccheapest\u201d supplier that wins. It is the supplier that delivers the whole package: the right item, the right evidence, the right lead time, and a fast response when something goes off track.<\/p><h3>6.1 Technical standards and documentation<\/h3><ul><li>compliance documentation organized from the source,<\/li><li>revision control and change tracking (specification, drawing, substitution),<\/li><li>evidence of tests and inspections where applicable,<\/li><li>clarity on what is \u201crequired\u201d versus \u201cgood practice\u201d, to avoid too many or too few documents.<\/li><\/ul><h3>6.2 Lead time, logistics and criticality<\/h3><ul><li>mapping of critical items (high impact and low substitutability),<\/li><li>equivalent alternatives prepared in advance,<\/li><li>realistic forecasting of customs clearance and transportation,<\/li><li>contingency plans for delays and supply disruptions.<\/li><\/ul><h3>6.3 Maintenance and MRO with less margin for error<\/h3><ul><li>more demand for high-turnover spare parts,<\/li><li>more shutdown and maintenance windows with short deadlines,<\/li><li>more total cost associated with downtime, not just with the price of the part.<\/li><\/ul><h2>7) Sustainability and efficiency: a trend that became a requirement<\/h2><p>The discussion of emissions, energy efficiency and \u201ccarbon per barrel\u201d is no longer just talk and has become a metric. Bacalhau is a public example of this approach, with estimated emissions of ~9 kg CO\u2082\/boe.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.equinor.com.br\/noticias\/bacalhau-maior-campo-internacional-da-equinor-inicia-operacao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><p>For the supply chain, this usually translates into requirements for:<\/p><ul><li>operational efficiency (reduction of losses, rework, returns),<\/li><li>quality control that reduces scrap and premature replacement,<\/li><li>correct application engineering to extend service life,<\/li><li>transparency of technical data when requested in qualification processes.<\/li><\/ul><h2>Conclusion<\/h2><p>Brazilian offshore reaches 2026 with a rare combination: relevant projects recently started, a production ramp-up underway, and growing projections for investment and available gas over the coming years. The impact on the supply chain is direct: more volume and more complexity, with lower tolerance for failures in lead times and technical standards.<\/p><p>For those working in supply, the message is simple: the opportunity exists, but the bar has been raised. Planning, documentation discipline, command of lead times and fast response have become part of the product.<\/p><div><p><strong>CTA:<\/strong>\u00a0Want to receive short technical analyses like this one? Save this post and follow the upcoming blog posts.<\/p><\/div><h2>FAQ<\/h2><h3>What does \u201cavailable gas production\u201d mean in the projections?<\/h3><p>In the IBP Outlook, it is the gross production in consolidated projects, minus own consumption, flaring and reinjection.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/portal.ibp.org.br\/personalizado\/uploads\/2025\/10\/pt-outlookibp.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Source<\/a><\/p><h3>Why is 2026 likely to put more pressure on the supply chain than 2025?<\/h3><p>Because 2026 is likely to reflect the first full year of routine, maintenance, replacement and execution at a continuous pace after the start-up milestones that took place in 2025.<\/p><h3>Which sources should you follow to avoid \u201cinternet numbers\u201d?<\/h3><p>For operational milestones: Ag\u00eancia Petrobras and ANP. For specific projects: operator announcements (for example, Equinor). For sector projections: IBP reports and official MME\/EPE documents where applicable.<\/p><h2>Sources<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br\/economia\/noticia\/2026-01\/petrobras-inicia-operacao-na-plataforma-p-78-no-campo-de-buzios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">P-78: start of production and capacity (Ag\u00eancia Brasil, based on a Petrobras announcement)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/agencia.petrobras.com.br\/w\/campo-de-b%C3%BAzios-atinge-produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o-recorde-de-1-milh%C3%A3o-de-barris-de-petr%C3%B3leo-por-dia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">B\u00fazios: record of 1 million bbl\/d (Ag\u00eancia Petrobras)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/anp\/pt-br\/canais_atendimento\/imprensa\/noticias-comunicados\/anp-autoriza-inicio-das-operacoes-do-fpso-p-78-no-campo-de-buzios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">ANP: authorization to start operations of the FPSO P-78 (ANP)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.equinor.com.br\/noticias\/bacalhau-maior-campo-internacional-da-equinor-inicia-operacao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Bacalhau: capacity and estimated emissions (Equinor)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.br\/mme\/pt-br\/assuntos\/noticias\/com-potencial-para-produzir-um-bilhao-de-barris-campo-de-bacalhau-inicia-producao-no-pre-sal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Bacalhau under the production sharing regime and institutional context (MME)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/portal.ibp.org.br\/personalizado\/uploads\/2025\/10\/pt-outlookibp.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Outlook IBP 2025-2029: projections for production, gas, investments and government revenue (IBP)<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O ciclo atual do \u00f3leo e g\u00e1s brasileiro entrou em uma fase mais \u201cp\u00e9 no ch\u00e3o\u201d e, ao mesmo tempo, muito exigente: depois de marcos importantes em 2025, 2026 tende a ser o primeiro ano completo em que a rampa de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e os efeitos na cadeia de suprimentos aparecem com mais for\u00e7a. Isso muda [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2126,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sem-categoria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2125"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2130,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2125\/revisions\/2130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qlpgroup.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}